Analisis Dampak Urbanisasi Terhadap Kapasitas Infrastruktur Transportasi Menggunakan Pendekatan Model Simulasi Dinamis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69503/ije.v5i1.1618Keywords:
Urbanisasi, Kapasitas Transportasi, Simulasi Dinamis, System Dynamics, Transportasi PerkotaanAbstract
Abstrak: Urbanisasi yang berlangsung cepat menimbulkan tekanan signifikan terhadap kapasitas infrastruktur transportasi perkotaan. Peningkatan populasi, ekspansi wilayah terbangun, serta perubahan pola mobilitas mendorong kenaikan permintaan perjalanan yang tidak selalu sejalan dengan pertumbuhan kapasitas jaringan transportasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak urbanisasi terhadap kapasitas infrastruktur transportasi melalui pendekatan model simulasi dinamis terintegrasi. Metode yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif berbasis simulasi dengan menggabungkan system dynamics, dynamic traffic assignment, dan mikrosimulasi lalu lintas. Model dikembangkan untuk merepresentasikan interaksi antara pertumbuhan penduduk, tata guna lahan, permintaan perjalanan, dan kapasitas jaringan jalan. Simulasi dilakukan pada beberapa skenario tingkat urbanisasi guna mengamati perubahan kinerja sistem transportasi dari waktu ke waktu. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa dampak urbanisasi bersifat nonlinier terhadap kapasitas infrastruktur. Pada tahap awal, sistem masih mampu mengakomodasi peningkatan permintaan perjalanan. Namun, pada tingkat urbanisasi yang lebih tinggi, kapasitas efektif menurun, ditandai dengan peningkatan kemacetan, penurunan kecepatan perjalanan, serta distribusi beban lalu lintas ke jaringan sekunder. Interaksi tata guna lahan dan transportasi memperkuat tekanan sistem, khususnya pada kawasan dengan pertumbuhan permukiman tidak terencana. Kesimpulannya, kapasitas transportasi dipengaruhi oleh dinamika urbanisasi dan pola mobilitas masyarakat.
Abstract: Rapid urbanization exerts significant pressure on the capacity of urban transportation infrastructure. Population growth, expansion of built-up areas, and shifts in mobility patterns increase travel demand, which does not always align with the growth of transport network capacity. This study aims to analyze the impact of urbanization on transportation infrastructure capacity using an integrated dynamic simulation modeling approach. A quantitative simulation-based method is applied by combining system dynamics, dynamic traffic assignment, and traffic microsimulation. The model is developed to represent interactions among population growth, land use, travel demand, and road network capacity. Simulations are conducted under several urbanization scenarios to examine changes in transportation system performance over time. The results show that the impact of urbanization on infrastructure capacity is nonlinear. In the early stages, the system can still accommodate increasing travel demand. However, at higher levels of urbanization, effective capacity declines, as indicated by increased congestion, reduced travel speeds, and redistribution of traffic loads to secondary networks. The interaction between land use and transport further intensifies system pressure, particularly in areas with unplanned residential growth. In conclusion, transportation capacity is shaped by the dynamics of urbanization and evolving mobility patterns.
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